The Hole in One - Skill, Luck or Magic?

Kevin Willard
12 minutes ago
3 min read

Do you have one? Where did you get yours?

Invariably when you play golf with strangers and step to a par 3 tee, the question comes up - "Have you ever had a hole in one?"

What is amazing to me is the specific detail and clarity those who have achieved this rare feat provide their story of the ace! I walked into the garage a while ago and forgot why; but I can tell you that my only hole in one came at Park City Municipal Golf Course in Park City, UT on the 17th hole, 184 yard, 4 iron that hit 4 inches over the pin and rolled back into the hole! That was twenty years ago this month!

My son had his first hole in one at age 12 at Navy Golf Course -Cruiser on Hole #2, 155 yard par 3 and hit a 4 hybrid with one bounce and hit the stick and dropped! My buddy from high school hit an absolute worm-burner 135 yards that hit the stick and went in at Golf City, an executive course in Ogden, UT; it barely got off the ground, but it still counts as a "1"!

My dad golfed for over 50 years and never had one; although he came close several times. When I told him about my son's achievement, he chuckled and congratulated him, but I could tell there was a bit of wonder and anticipation in his voice - "how did he get so lucky?"

The truth is, when you step to a par 3 tee, you are actually trying to hit it toward the hole. This is where the "skill" part comes in - you have to give the ball a chance to be in the proximity of the hole to start! Then there are things like wind speed, trajectory, spin all aligning for the perfect outcome - so rare that some "luck" needs to be involved. Finally, the actual "magic" happens for a select few - not necessarily the most (or least) deserving golfer, just the right place at the right time with the combined trifecta of skill, luck and magic!

Here are some supporting statistics for your enjoyment and wonderment...

General Facts About Holes-in-One

Definition: A hole-in-one (ace) happens when a golfer hits the ball directly from the tee into the cup in one stroke.
Typical Hole: 99%+ occur on par-3 holes (shorter length, one-shot design).
Distance: Most aces are made from 130–170 yards, though they can be shorter (par-3s under 100 yards) or much longer (rare par-4 aces).
Age Factor: Aces are surprisingly common among senior golfers, since many play shorter tees and more par-3s.

📈 Odds of a Hole-in-One

The odds are usually expressed per round, since not every golfer plays the same number of par-3s:

Average golfer: ~12,500 to 1
Professional golfer: ~2,500 to 1
Scratch/Low handicap (0–5): ~5,000 to 1
Mid handicap (6–12): ~12,000 to 1
High handicap (13+): ~20,000 to 1

These odds are based on American Hole-In-One Association and NGF (National Golf Foundation) data.

⛳ Handicap & Likelihood

Lower handicaps (0–5): Better ball-striking and accuracy, so they give themselves more chances.
Mid-handicaps (6–12): Still decent shot-making but with less consistent precision.
Higher handicaps (13+): Much less likely to consistently hit greens, so their odds rise significantly.
Fun fact: Despite the odds, higher-handicap golfers do make plenty of holes-in-one — often because they’re taking shorter clubs and rolling balls toward the pin more unpredictably.

🏌️‍♂️ Other Pertinent Stats

U.S. Aces Per Year: Roughly 128,000 holes-in-one are made annually in the U.S.
Lifetime Chance: A dedicated golfer playing 25–30 rounds/year has a 10–15% chance of making an ace in their lifetime.
Most Holes-in-One: Norman Manley (amateur, CA) recorded 59 lifetime aces.
Age Range: The youngest recorded ace was 5 years old, the oldest was 103.